Every year during fantasy drafts people attempt to predict which players will drop off, and which will rise to new heights in production. Some of this can be attributed to a change of team, sometimes it is simply due to a player passing his prime.

In other cases, players rekindle their careers by having monster years in a new change of scenery. This season, pundits predict the following players to experience decreases in their numbers due to a new team. I believe the exact opposite, and here are the reasons why.

Richard Jefferson – San Antonio Spurs

Jefferson should be huge for San Antonion this year. (Credit: oddjack.com)

People are saying he is the 4^th fiddle in San Antonio. If anything, Jefferson will receive many wide-open threes as result of being paired with the best big man passer in the league, Tim Duncan. He will not bear all the pressure like he did in Milwaukee.

Expect the game to come easier playing for the best team he has ever been a member of. His point totals and rebounding might not improve, but his shooting % should see a dramatic increase as he will undoubtedly be benefiting from Poppovich’s system.

Shawn Marion – Dallas Mavericks

Marion will benefit from Jason Kidd. (Credit: picapp.com)

Shawn Marion is simply not suited for half court offense. We saw this as he faded away in Toronto and in Miami. Now, in Dallas, with Jason Kidd pushing the ball, look for Marion to be revived with the run and gun fast break basketball style in Dallas.

Marion should yield big numbers and have a high impact in multiple categories. He should have his best season since he last played along side Steve Nash in Phoenix.

Ron Artest – Los Angeles Lakers

Artest will fill multiple categories this year. (Credit: picapp.com)

Media predictions are claiming Artest should see a decrease in numbers this year. I have already seen him available lower than usual in the draft, which makes him possibly the biggest steal of the draft. He is an 8-category threat, and hits a huge amount of 3s.

Even if his scoring decreases, his all around stats should rise substantially within the Lakers’ system, making him a valid selection for your team. If you plot your draft course correctly, he should still be around later than usual.

Antonio McDyess is officially a member of the San Antonio Spurs, strengthening Protect the Paint’s prediction that the Spurs are the team to beat for 2010.

McDyess (and draft choice DeJuan Blair) joins Tim Duncan and Matt Bonner to give San Antonio an incredibly strong, versatile frontcourt. Duncan does everything. He might not rap or be covered in tattoos. He’s never assaulted anyone, so his street-cred is lacking, but he’ll go down as one of the best basketball players ever.

McDyess' shooting touch can now help a contender. (credit:picapp.com)

Bonner started last season, but most likely will come off the bench for the new Spurs. His 44 percent from beyond the arc brings defenders out of the paint freeing up space for Duncan. Blair—the 37th pick in last month’s draft out of Pittsburgh—is a rebounding machine. This is a man who can protect the paint.

Which brings us to McDyess. The number two overall back from the 1995 Draft averaged 9.6 points and 9.8 rebounds per game last year in 62 games with Detroit, starting out as a reserve and eventually gaining a starting position because of his steady play. He might not have the same psycho look in his eye Kurt Thomas (traded to Milwaukee) did, but immediately makes the Spurs a much better rebounding team and more physical.

Jefferson will be slashing teams apart at will. (Credit: picapp.com)

Throw in the acquisition of Richard Jefferson—excellent defender, gets out on the break, in his prime—and the Spurs add the athleticism they lacked last season.

Tony Parker and a healthy Manu Ginobili, along with Duncan, McDyess, and Michael Finley gives the team five players who at some point have been All-Stars. The Spurs head into the season with their deepest roster ever, and this is a franchise that has won four NBA titles.

PROJECTED ROTATION

STARTERS/RESERVES

Tony Parker/George Hill
Roger Mason/Manu Ginobili
Richard Jefferson/Michael Finley
Tim Duncan/DeJuan Blair
Antonio McDyess/Matt Bonner

The five reserves are better than the majority of the starting five for the rest of the league.

McDyess—who will be 35 when the season begins—might not be in his prime, but even though the Lakers added Ron Artest and the Mavs traded for Shawn Marion, it will be incredibly difficult for these two teams or anyone to get past the Spurs in 2009-10.

The combo of Duncan, Ginobili, and Parker has won three titles already, and, provided the injury bug doesn’t bite, should make for at least one more.

Trade rumors involving Carlos Boozer, Rip Hamilton, Andre Miller, and CJ Miles are circulating throughout the league.

With substantial free agent activity about to ensue,  trades will be made by both cash-strapped teams and ones hoping to clear cap room for next summer. Historically it has been proven that teams will make trades out of desperation (i.e. Jason Kidd for Devin Harris to the Mavs). What teams are on the verge of making moves they will one day regret.

Protect the Paint will now look at some of the trade rumors floating around the league:

RUMORED TRADES

Carlos Boozer in exchange for Rip Hamilton

Boozer might be headed to Detroit for Rip Hamilton. (Credit: scorereport.com)

It is obvious Hamilton needs to be shipped elsewhere as Ben Gordon and Stuckey are the back-court of the future/now. It’s rare a guy is awarded $50 million or more to be the 6th man. It is curious though as Boozer and Charlie Villanueva essentially play the same position. By trading for Boozer, what purpose was there in signing Villanueva? With free agency rumors involving Brandon Bass, one must wonder why Joe Dumars is trying to stockpile power forwards.

Andre Miller to the Portland Trailblazers

Andre Miller: heading to Portland via sign and trade? (Credit: slamonline.com)

Miller appears to be on his way to Portland via the sign and trade. We mentioned this possibility here last week. This is a sensible move for the Blazers who lacked experience at the point especially evident in the post-season. Brandon Roy will thrive with a good decision maker running the show. Portland may trade Rudy Fernandez–rumored to be unhappy even after Hedo Turkoglu decided not to come to the team–which may be a move general manager Kevin Pritchard ends up regretting. Expect Travis Outlaw to be a part of the deal.

CJ Miles to Toronto Raptors/Boston Celtics/New Jersey Nets

CJ Miles is heating up the trade talks. (Credit: blog.tribphoto.com)

There are many teams (possibly six) rumored to be closing in on C.J. Miles. Miles is young (22), a capable shooter (46% FG in 2008-09), and has played within Jerry Sloan’s strict system. Boston, Toronto, and New Jersey could use his outside shooting, and it is a safe assumption he would thrive in a system outside of Utah, as other players have (see Mo Wiliams). New Jersey has the most talent to offer. Miles would see an increase in minutes in Toronto or New Jersey, resulting in a chance to realize his potential.

Shawn Marion to the Dallas Mavericks

Marion: Heading to Dallas, but will it do any good? (Credit: daylife.com)

This would be a sign and trade deal in which Marion comes to Big D with Jery Stackhouse heading a package of players headed north of the border. This move would give the Mavs some athleticism and a good rebounder. The nucleus of Dirk Nowitzki, Jason Kidd, and Marion with Jason Terry and the possible addition of Marcin Gortat improves the roster. Whether it places them among the upper echelon teams of the Western Conference is up for debate. This roster appears to be a work in progress.