Every NBA season sees a few guys break out. Players that finally got the chance to get the necessary minutes to put up legit stats and took advantage of the opportunity. Jeff Green of the Oklahoma City Thunder and Kelenna Azubuike of the Golden State Warriors were these type of players from this past season. Green went from 28 to nearly 37 minutes a game upping his average from 10.5 to 16.5 ppg. Azubuike’s minute total went from 21 to 32 and he took advantage upping his points per game average from 8.5 to 14.4. We at Protect the Paint will now give you Part 1 of the Top 10 Under-the-Radar Breakout Players of 2009-10.

Can Amir win Skiles over and earn playing time? (Credit: picapp.com)

10. Amir Johnson F/C Milwaukee Bucks: Only 22, but has been in the league since 2005 buried on the Pistons bench with some time in the D-League. Seldom had the chance to incur the growing pains a young player needs in order to develop—he never got the necessary minutes. Johnson should see plenty of time in Milwaukee under coach Scott Skiles who will appreciate his defensive effort. Look for Amir to round out his game and see an upward swing in production in the first quarter of the season. That is, if Skiles lets him play through his mistakes.

Dj White will prove the pundits wrong this season. (Credit: picapp.com)

9. D.J. White F Oklahoma City Thunder: The former Big 10 Player of the Year came into the league last season, but his rookie year was delayed five months after undergoing surgery on his jaw to remove a benign growth. Played six games in the D-League before debuting for the Thunder in April. Played in only seven games but immediately proved he could play against NBA talent scoring 8.9 points with 4.6 rebounds in just over 18 minutes per game. Should fit right into the Thunder rotation for 2009-10 as one of the first players off Scott Brooks’ bench.

A bigger stronger Brewer could explode this season. (Credit: dimemag.com)

8. Corey Brewer G/F Minnesota Timberwolves: Bulked up about 15 pounds while rehabbing his surgically repaired ACL which was a necessity considering he was listed last year at just 185 lbs. which wasn’t much for a player standing 6’9”. Has been working on what his game lacks most, shooting. If Brewer can raise his offensive game to match his defensive tenacity, he will be well on his way to becoming the player Minnesota thought he was when they selected him with the 7th pick of the 2007 Draft. We will get the first glimpse of Brewer’s new frame and skills starting today when the Las Vegas portion of the NBA Summer League begins.

Will Rudy get the minutes to break out this year? (Credit: picapp.com)

7. Rudy Fernandez G Portland Trailblazers: The decorated European star had an excellent first season in the NBA last year in the Pacific Northwest setting the rookie record for most three-pointers made (159), but has just scratched the surface of realizing his potential. If he gets more than the 25 minutes per game he averaged last season, the Spaniard could explode into one of the top players in the league. Recent rumors of his unhappiness after Portland’s failed attempt to sign Hedo Turkoglu could result in Fernandez being included in any potential deal in the making.

Regardless of where Thomas ends up, will he live up to his hype? (Credit: picapp.com)

6. Tyrus Thomas F Chicago Bulls: Overdue for his breakout year—showed flashes of his superstar potential. If Thomas can stop his love affair with the jump shot and continuously attack the rim, his point per game total will dramatically increase. He is a solid free throw shooter (78% last year) and by getting to the rim he could up his scoring average to 18-20 points. If he can stay on the court for 35 minutes a game Thomas should produce All-Star caliber numbers. Anything less would be a real let down. Rumored to be part of a deal that would send him to Utah with Carlos Boozer coming to Chicago.

Check back tomorrow to find the top 5 in our NBA Top 10 Under-The-Radar Breakout Players of 2009-10: Part 2

This Wednesday, Ben Gordon and Charlie Villanueva came to Detroit and became the first NBA free agent “signees” of the summer. New Piston Gordon will make $55 million over 5 years, while Villanueva will net $40 million over the same span.

We mentioned/predicted in our story earlier this week, 2009 NBA Free Agents: Cap Space Talks Or The Free Agents Walk that Gordon would be a great fit if he were to land in Detroit. Protect the Paint will now take a deeper look into the pros and cons of what these signings will do for the Pistons.

PROS:

Signing Gordon and Villanueva delivers two potent scorers to the Detroit roster. We stated in our previous free agency story that Rodney Stuckey and Gordon  are a great 1-2 punch. Gordon has a career 21.3 ppg average, and Stuckey’s game is improving. With Iverson departed, Stuckey should return to the player he was prior to AI’s arrival.

Ben Gordon needs to improve his shot selection in Detroit (Credit: smackenergybar.com)

Ben Gordon is 26 and in his prime.  He gives the Pistons more offense, but is it that different than what they had with Allen Iverson? We assume he will start, but if he doesn’t, he comes off the bench spelling either Rip Hamilton or Stuckey. Gordan has a knack for scoring points in bunches. His defense is a different story.

Villanueva averaged 16.2 points and 6.7 rebounds last season but those numbers are actually quite deceiving. Villanueva’s true scoring average when starting was 17.7 ppg, with 7.3 rpg, 2 apg, adding nearly a steal and a block per contest. If he learns to suppress his lust for the three-pointer, he will become a far more effective offensive player. He can increase his point and rebound totals as a result of positioning himself closer to the basket.

Villanueva, 24, is on the cusp of entering his prime. He should immediately start for the Pistons and will pose trouble for the opposition as the 3rd or 4th scoring option.

The two players are both solid free throw shooters, and have little flaws in their offensive talents, other than shot selection.

CONS

Charlie Villanueva needs to attack the rim more for Detroit (Credit: blair.edu)

Villanueva is amongst the worst defenders in the NBA at the power forward position. During a recent chat with NBA statistics guru Haralabos Voulgaris, he stated,

“He (Villanueva) is the worst PF defender in the league by a longshot”.

Villanueva’s adjusted plus minus confirms Haralabos’ statement.

After much belaboring in Milwaukee by Scott Skiles, Villanueva did slightly improve his defense during some stretches. Time will only tell if this trend continues. The Bucks were extremely short on players because of injuries, so it’s fair to wonder if Skiles–often disgusted by his defensive efforts–would have given him so many minutes if the Bucks’ injury situation had been different.

We witnessed Gordon’s major flaw in the playoffs versus the Boston Celtics last season. Gordon has a habit of trying to force the offense, resulting in quick, low percentage shots. This hurt Gordon’s Bulls against the Celtics during the Eastern Conference 1st round game 7.

Gordon's judgment and shooting skills vanished in game 7 (Credit: ESPN)

Gordon’s poor shot selection during the 4th quarter allowed the Celtics more  possessions late in that deciding game (not to mention other key moments of the series). The Celtics then capitalized by converting multiple free throws to seal the win.

Moral of the story: Ben Gordon is not a clutch player and you could make the case the Bulls will be a much better team without him. The power struggle for the basketball between Gordon and Derrick Rose hurt the Bulls all year.

Additionally, Gordon (who you could call one-dimensional) has a long way to go defensively. His lack of height at the two-guard position will cause him problems defending the larger shooting guards in the league. The firing of defensive-minded Michael Curry indicates a new style of play in Detroit will be integrated for the upcoming season.

SYNOPSIS:

Ultimately, Gordon and Villanueva are talented, young offensive-minded players who will add to a lineup with their athleticism and ability to score.

Stuckey, Gordon, Hamilton, Tayshuan Prince, Villanueva, and Jason Maxiell comprise a solid core moving forward. If players like Maxiell, Rip and Prince can compensate for Gordon and Villanueva’s defensive inadequacies, making a low-seed playoff push is realistic. Of course, this will be dependant upon who Dumars hires as head coach.

Anyone escaping the doldrums of Milwaukee must feel as if they have a new lease on life. But that does not indicate that it will be a new lease on new defensive desires. Hopefully Detroit’s core can help Villanueva accelerate this development. If not, it could mean a trip back to the lottery.

We here at Protect the Paint must ask: What is Joe Dumars’  vision for the future direction of the Pistons?

Dumars succeeded early in his tenure as GM, but last year he traded away Chauncey Billups for Allen Iverson and  it failed miserably. Having Kwame Brown on the roster additionally tarnishes his track record. The 2003 drafting of Darko Milcic immediately indicates a trend that for every good move he’s made, Dumars also has the capacity to blow it.

Milicic is the symbol of Joe Dumars' bad management decisions (Credit: ESPN)

Will anyone ever forget the Darko selection?

Iverson could replace Darko as the symbol of Dumars' mistakes (Credit: mlive.com)

Can Gordon and Villanueva  eventually make Detroit fans forget about the Iverson trade?

Will Villanueva and Gordon learn to defend and use better shot selection?

There are too many unknowns to have a positive reflection on the outcome of these signings. We will have to see who coaches this team and what demands (most specifically on defense) he makes on the newest employees of the Motor City.

The 2009 NBA Draft is in the books begging the question: What teams added the piece that will help them out of the lottery and into the playoffs next year? The Bulls, Heat, and Blazers—lottery teams from 2008—made the playoffs, replaced this year by Phoenix, Toronto, and Washington (who traded their pick to Minnesota). Below is Protect the Paint’s grades for what this year’s lottery teams did with their lottery pick and a prediction of their lottery-status for next season.

Blake Griffin should start immediately (Credit: ESPN)

#1     Los Angeles Clippers        Blake Griffin            Grade: A

No surprise here. Look for the Clippers to make some roster moves to insure Griffin a starting spot and get rid of some locker room headaches. NEXT YEAR: they’ll be better, but the Western Conference is stacked, so back to the lottery.

Can Thabeet develop an offensive game? (Credit: ESPN)

#2     Memphis Grizzlies        Hasheem Thabeet        Grade: B

The next Dikembe Mutombo? Thabeet should be an immediate impact player on the defensive end. Luckily for him, Rudy Gay and OJ Mayo will be taking most of the shots. Lookout if he develops an offensive game. He should be in the league for his D alone for years to come. NEXT YEAR: back to the lottery.

James Harden might be the best player of the draft class (Credit: ESPN)

#3    Oklahoma City Thunder    James Harden            Grade: B

The Thunder eliminated their biggest weakness and gave Russell Westbrook a running mate in the backcourt. The combination of Westbrook, Harden, Jeff Green, and Kevin Durant is downright frightening for what the future has in store for the Thunder. Look for this team to dramatically improve their win total (23) from last year. NEXT YEAR: much improved, but back to the lottery.

The Kings surprised everyone by selecting Evans over Rubio (Credit: ESPN)

#4    Sacramento Kings        Tyreke Evans            Grade: D

This was a shocker. It seemed every mock draft, rumor, or news report had Ricky Rubio coming to Sac-town. Evans has flaws in his overall game. He is raw, but there is an abundance of raw, young talent in Sacramento. In three years, one must question where Evans will be in comparison to Rubio. Low grade is for not selecting Rubio. The kid displayed abilities and poise years beyond his age in the Olympics against the redeem team. NEXT YEAR: back to the lottery.

Ricky Rubio will likely be dealt or play next season in Europe (Credit: ESPN)

#5    Minnesota Timberwolves    Ricky Rubio            Grade: B
The T-Wolves got their man with Rubio. Flynn (see 6th pick) is an athletic, charismatic type player whom will lift his teammates on and off the court. However, he is one of 5 guards selected by Minnesota. We here at Protect the Paint envision Rubio emerging as a superstar in this league. Look for multiple moves in the near future from Minnesota. A good question is if Rubio even plays in the NBA this year. NEXT YEAR: back to the lottery.

Jonny Flynn has the talent to star in Minnesota for years to come (Credit: ESPN)

#6    Minnesota Timberwolves    Johnny Flynn            Grade: B-
Guard #2 of 5 selected by Minnesota. It will be very interesting to see who is dealt and who is kept. With Minnesota’s luck, it is a safe bet the guy dealt experiences greater NBA prosperity. Right now, Rubio has far more trade value. NEXT YEAR: back to the lottery.

Stephen Curry: NBA Rookie of the Year? (Credit: ESPN)

#7    Golden State Warriors        Stephen Curry            Grade: A+
The Warriors high-octane offense just acquired a serious scoring threat. Scouting reports knocked his defense and decision-making. Sounds like a perfect fit for the Bay Area. The only disclaimer in Oakland: the brass told Monta Ellis they would not select a PG. If the two can get along, the Warriors could be quite dangerous when going small. NEXT YEAR: back to the lottery.

Hill is the Knicks consolation prize after Curry was taken at 7. (Credit: ESPN)

#8    New York Knicks        Jordan Hill            Grade: C+
The Knicks lost out big time by not being able to draft Stephen Curry but are satisfied with Hill. Hill provides immediate relief if David Lee leaves. Pundits believe he will thrive in Mike D’Antoni’s run and gun style of play. Will the Knicks ever be good again? NEXT YEAR: back to the lottery.

Can DeRozen make Chris Bosh reconsider leaving Toronto? (Credit: ESPN)

#9    Toronto Raptors        DeMar DeRozan        Grade: A-
This is possibly the best pick the Raptors could have hoped for. DeRozen is freakishly athletic.  Will be a key piece in forcing Chris Bosh to consider staying, If Bosh leaves, Toronto has a solid component to build around for the future. NEXT YEAR: if they keep Chris Bosh, this should be a playoff team in 2010.

Brandon Jennings appears poised to excel for the Bucks (Credit: ESPN)

#10    Milwaukee Bucks        Brandon Jennings        Grade: B-
It will be interesting to listen, watch, and read about how coach Scott Skiles and his new point guard get along. It could be like dynamite and nitro glycerin. With Richard Jefferson gone, and rumors of Luke Ridnour being on the block, Jennings and Ramon Sessions will form the nucleus of a young Bucks backcourt. NEXT YEAR: back to the lottery.

Terrence Williams joins a crowded backcourt in New Jersey (Credit: ESPN)

#11    New Jersey Nets        Terrence Williams        Grade: B
Williams will fit into a young backcourt rotation of Devon Harris, Chris Douglas-Roberts, and Courtney Lee now that Vince Carter is headed to Orlando. If he learns to be consistent as a pro he will be fun to watch. It is a safe bet New Jersey might hold a higher pick in next years draft with their youth movement officially set in motion. NEXT YEAR: back to the lottery.

Michael Jordan drafted archrival school Duke's Henderson (Credit: ESPN)

#12    Charlotte Bobcats        Gerald Henderson        Grade: C-
Wow, Michael Jordan drafted a Dukie. At least he didn’t draft fellow UNC alum Tyler Hansbrough (see next pick). Henderson is super-athletic a very good defensive player. Will need to develop more of an offensive game or he could become the next Bruce Bowen (minus the corner three). Weird pick with Earl Clark still on the board. NEXT YEAR: they’ll be a better team, but back to the lottery.

Indiana failed heinously selecting Tyler Hansbrough (Credit: ESPN)

#13    Indiana Pacers            Tyler Hansbrough        Grade: F*
Hansbrough might be a tough guy—a blue-collar worker whom Indiana fans will appreciate—but he appears to be a man without a position in the NBA. Lacks the foot speed and athleticism to succeed at this level. Indiana blew it. This organization already misses Donnie Walsh. NEXT YEAR: back to the lottery.

*F grade due to who was selected at pick #14.

Brandon Jennings stepped in late on behalf the 14th pick Earl Clark (Credit: ESPN)

#14    Phoenix Suns            Earl Clarke            Grade:  A
The Suns are obviously in a rebuilding mode. Earl Clark is a shooting guard in a big man’s body and will give the team versatility. Good ball handler for his size (like a right-handed Lamar Odom). Needs to improve his range. If the rumors about his lack of work ethic prove unfounded, Phoenix could have the steal of the 2009 NBA Draft. NEXT YEAR: back to the lottery.

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