Every year during fantasy drafts people attempt to predict which players will drop off, and which will rise to new heights in production. Some of this can be attributed to a change of team, sometimes it is simply due to a player passing his prime.

In other cases, players rekindle their careers by having monster years in a new change of scenery. This season, pundits predict the following players to experience decreases in their numbers due to a new team. I believe the exact opposite, and here are the reasons why.

Richard Jefferson – San Antonio Spurs

Jefferson should be huge for San Antonion this year. (Credit: oddjack.com)

People are saying he is the 4^th fiddle in San Antonio. If anything, Jefferson will receive many wide-open threes as result of being paired with the best big man passer in the league, Tim Duncan. He will not bear all the pressure like he did in Milwaukee.

Expect the game to come easier playing for the best team he has ever been a member of. His point totals and rebounding might not improve, but his shooting % should see a dramatic increase as he will undoubtedly be benefiting from Poppovich’s system.

Shawn Marion – Dallas Mavericks

Marion will benefit from Jason Kidd. (Credit: picapp.com)

Shawn Marion is simply not suited for half court offense. We saw this as he faded away in Toronto and in Miami. Now, in Dallas, with Jason Kidd pushing the ball, look for Marion to be revived with the run and gun fast break basketball style in Dallas.

Marion should yield big numbers and have a high impact in multiple categories. He should have his best season since he last played along side Steve Nash in Phoenix.

Ron Artest – Los Angeles Lakers

Artest will fill multiple categories this year. (Credit: picapp.com)

Media predictions are claiming Artest should see a decrease in numbers this year. I have already seen him available lower than usual in the draft, which makes him possibly the biggest steal of the draft. He is an 8-category threat, and hits a huge amount of 3s.

Even if his scoring decreases, his all around stats should rise substantially within the Lakers’ system, making him a valid selection for your team. If you plot your draft course correctly, he should still be around later than usual.

Antonio McDyess is officially a member of the San Antonio Spurs, strengthening Protect the Paint’s prediction that the Spurs are the team to beat for 2010.

McDyess (and draft choice DeJuan Blair) joins Tim Duncan and Matt Bonner to give San Antonio an incredibly strong, versatile frontcourt. Duncan does everything. He might not rap or be covered in tattoos. He’s never assaulted anyone, so his street-cred is lacking, but he’ll go down as one of the best basketball players ever.

McDyess' shooting touch can now help a contender. (credit:picapp.com)

Bonner started last season, but most likely will come off the bench for the new Spurs. His 44 percent from beyond the arc brings defenders out of the paint freeing up space for Duncan. Blair—the 37th pick in last month’s draft out of Pittsburgh—is a rebounding machine. This is a man who can protect the paint.

Which brings us to McDyess. The number two overall back from the 1995 Draft averaged 9.6 points and 9.8 rebounds per game last year in 62 games with Detroit, starting out as a reserve and eventually gaining a starting position because of his steady play. He might not have the same psycho look in his eye Kurt Thomas (traded to Milwaukee) did, but immediately makes the Spurs a much better rebounding team and more physical.

Jefferson will be slashing teams apart at will. (Credit: picapp.com)

Throw in the acquisition of Richard Jefferson—excellent defender, gets out on the break, in his prime—and the Spurs add the athleticism they lacked last season.

Tony Parker and a healthy Manu Ginobili, along with Duncan, McDyess, and Michael Finley gives the team five players who at some point have been All-Stars. The Spurs head into the season with their deepest roster ever, and this is a franchise that has won four NBA titles.

PROJECTED ROTATION

STARTERS/RESERVES

Tony Parker/George Hill
Roger Mason/Manu Ginobili
Richard Jefferson/Michael Finley
Tim Duncan/DeJuan Blair
Antonio McDyess/Matt Bonner

The five reserves are better than the majority of the starting five for the rest of the league.

McDyess—who will be 35 when the season begins—might not be in his prime, but even though the Lakers added Ron Artest and the Mavs traded for Shawn Marion, it will be incredibly difficult for these two teams or anyone to get past the Spurs in 2009-10.

The combo of Duncan, Ginobili, and Parker has won three titles already, and, provided the injury bug doesn’t bite, should make for at least one more.

Kobe Bryant will no longer need to worry about fighting with Ron Artest during the playoffs. They can now plan to fight each other every day during practice. Artest agreed in principle to sign a three-year deal worth $18 million, proving he wants to win. He seemingly could have made a lot more cash elsewhere.

Kobe Bryant's worst nightmare became a dream come true. (Credit: giant.blackplanet.com)

Artest has a long, troubled past, earning season-long suspensions, consequently disrupting team chemistry and unraveling chances for success.  Last season with Houston, Artest managed to make an about face both on and off the court. Artest then reverted to losing his composure multiple times, earning technical fouls and an ejection in the playofs against the Lakers.

Protect the Paint will assess the pros and cons of the Lakers mind-blowing acquisition.

PROS

Ron Artest will flex his defensive muscle for the Lakers this season. (Credit: suntimes.com)

Artest adds another tough defender to the lineup, compensating for the eventual loss of Trevor Ariza. He is a great ball handler for his size, incredibly strong, and unusually quick for his build. He emerged as a leader in Houston, and should be a great compliment to long-time friend/rival Kobe Bryant.

Artest’s career 42% shooting from the field ought to rise when easier shots become more plentiful within the Lakers offense. Artest’s rebounding and passing skills should prove beneficial in the multifaceted Lakers’ triangle offense. In addition, Artest has converted close to 40% of his three-point attempts over the past four years. This a vastly underrated offensive player.

Bottom line: Artest will have more weapons surrounding him, and be paired with the best overall player in the world (okay, LeBron James fans might want to debate that), rather than having to defend Kobe in the playoffs. His competitive temperament should be subdued as he accustoms himself to winning more often, and could inevitably lead to his first ever NBA Championship.

CONS

Artest’s reputation and spotty past will always be an issue, no matter how long his dormancy from acting out/up persists. Most recently he erupted (not in a good way) in the playoffs against the Lakers. This serial inability to maintain his composure has to always be a concern.

The main question that will linger this off-season and beyond is if Artest will be a distraction in the locker room. He is known for walking to the beat of his own drum, and with “Zen-Master” Phil Jackson possibly only coaching 41 games (he plans to only be on the bench during home games in 2009-10), that leaves 41 other games in which Artest will do “god knows what.”

The Los Angeles lifestyle and the negative influence it could hold is something to consider. He is no novice to the club life.  Here is an example supporting what could contribute to Artest being a detriment to the Lakers:

Should Artest immerse himself into the Los Angeles lifestyle too deeply, it could lead to his implosion and be a major detriment to the Lakers.

In the past, Artest has felt he needs the ball in his hands to be effective. This will be a major conundrum for the Lakers famed triangle offense. Growing pains could ensue as Artest regularly hangs on to the ball too long, often deciding to pull the trigger himself when other guys are open.

SYNOPSIS

Artest and the Lakers should see themselves staring down the San Antonio Spurs in the Western Conference Finals. These are now the best two teams (on paper) in the conference. Adding a moderately selfish player like Artest to the lineup could do more damage than good. Kobe is the king of L.A. (and no one is the boss of Artest), so it is not hard to envision the two of them finding it difficult to share the ball on offense.

San Antonio is by no means finished making deals, and if Rasheed Wallace and/or Antonio McDyess end up playing in the Alamodome, the NBA will have some amazing games for us to watch this forthcoming season. Now Manu Ginobili, Tony Parker, and Richard Jefferson will have the same worries when facing Arest that Kobe once had.

With that said, we’ll take the Spurs in six for the Western Conference title.

Click here to vote for the best free agent move of the summer!

This summer marks the continuation of major spending reform (and not for the better) in the NBA. The Vince Carter, Shaquille O’Neal, and Richard Jefferson deals exemplify that liquidating huge contracts for scrap (or crap) heaps, and aiming to win it all now, is THE popular trend–the rich getting richer. Ben Gordon, Hedo Turkoglu, Jason Kidd, and many other free agents will land large deals, but who can afford to pay them?

Teams are preparing for next summer by dangling expiring contracts via trade to desperate teams.  Assessing the chances to land a marquee name–LeBron James, Dwayne Wade, Amare Stoudemire, Chris Bosh, Dirk Nowitzki, Steve Nash, Paul Pierce, Manu Ginobili–in 2010 is becoming commonplace, and as a result unthinkable trades are being made.

But let’s not forget, there is top-notch talent available this summer, and Protect the Paint will now evaluate who we think the most relevant free agent is for the teams with the most spending power. Lets face it, money talks, or else the free agent walks.

The teams with the most cap space are:

1. Memphis ($18 mil)
2. Detroit ($16.6 mil)
3. Atlanta ($14.8 mil)
4. Oklahoma City ($14.7 mil)

Other teams with significant room are:

1. Utah ($9.2 mil)
2. Portland ($8.1 mil)
3. Miami ($6.7 mil).

MEMPHIS GRIZZLIES

Memphis is going to need every penny they have if they hope to lure a major free agent to play for the Grizzlies. We’re talking about a small market team and a perennial losing franchise. It is doubtful any free agent of substance would be willing go there. What’s the draw? Don’t say Mark Gasol. Beale Street is pretty nice though.

Whoever Memphis signs, they will likely pay more than that player’s true market value. Additional revenue is the only thing luring a player to the Grizzlies. The only destination less attractive may be Milwaukee where Brandon Jennings hardly looks (or sounds) like a savior.

BIGGEST NEED: New Location. If the Grizzlies were located in a larger market, we’ve got to believe more players would consider playing there. Until then, have your checkbook ready Griz. They do have the money to offer Hedo Turkoglu a salary he could not refuse. The combo of Turkoglu, OJ Mayo, and Rudy Gay is solid yet entirely unrealistic.

DETROIT PISTONS

Wednesday’s breaking news of head coach Michael Curry being fired implies Joe Dumars wants to insure free agents will want to come to Detroit. It is well documented that Curry ruffled more than just one player’s feathers. Apparently, Dumars plans to let Allen Iverson and Rasheed Wallace walk.

Iverson and Wallace are in the twilight of their careers, and locking either one of them into a long-term deal makes absolutely zero sense when the Pistons are building around Rodney Stuckey and Tayshaun Prince. Acquiring a third scoring option who is entering/closer to his prime is what Detroit needs.

Gordon's offensive skills would help Detroit (Credit: chi-ball.com)

GREATEST NEED: Ben Gordon or Hedo Turkoglu. Ben Gordon is ideal for Detroit. He is a young, capable scorer who would give the Pistons a solid trio of offensive weapons to build a bright future around. Turkoglu might not make sense with Rip Hamilton and Stuckey already there, but he is a major factor why Orlando went to the finals and the Pistons can afford him.

ATLANTA HAWKS

After recently acquiring Jamal Crawford from Golden State, it raises questions if Atlanta will re-sign Mike Bibby. Crawford gives Atlanta another 4th quarter scoring threat, easing the defensive pressure on Joe Johnson.

Atlanta can let 30-year-old Bibby walk, and re-sign key reserves Zaza Pachulia and Flip Murray. Retaining Pachulia gives Atlanta depth in the post, which is a necessity for playoff basketball.

Will Childress play another year in Greece? (Credit: lowposts.com)

GREATEST NEED: Keeping what they already have (re-signing Pachulia and Murray). These two players are too valuable and affordable not to re-sign and the Hawks need to save their coin for Johnson who can opt out next summer. Josh Childress returning from Greece would give them back-court flexibility.

OKLAHOMA CITY THUNDER

OKC cannot afford to spend too much on a major free agent. The Thunder need to spend frugally in order to retain the core of Kevin Durant, Jeff Green, and Russell Westbrook. It is an unconditional must. This being said, signing a mid-level free agent would be the wise move for OKC and there are several available. One in particular would fit nicely with the Thunder’s nucleus.

Millsap would thrive playing with the Thunder (Credit: deseretnews.com)

BIGGEST NEED: Paul Millsap would immediately add a tough rebounding presence and the blue-collar attitude that the young Thunder need. Adding Millsap makes the playoffs a possibility, especially considering Yao Ming’s injury in Houston puts the Rockets 2010 playoff hopes in major jeopardy opening up a spot for another Western Conference team. Millsap gives any team he’s on many second (and often third) chance opportunities on the offensive end. If Boozer opts out of Utah, then expect the Jazz to match any offer made on Millsap.

UTAH JAZZ

The Jazz faced potential free agency disaster, but both Carlos Boozer and Mehmet Okur have decided against opting out and will stay. Luckily for Utah, Boozer’s injury-plagued 2008-09 season and lingering questions of his ability to stay healthy is most likely all that prevented him from bailing and receiving a large offer elsewhere. Does he care about money more than winning? He did bail on LeBron. That should answer that question.

Okur–a big man who can shoot–must believe his best chance for another title (he won a ring in Detroit) lies in Salt Lake City.

Mehmet Okur won't abandon the Jazz. (Credit: nba.com)

BIGGEST NEED: Staying healthy. A healthy Jazz are as good as any team in the NBA. Re-signing Milsap as insurance for the fragile Boozer would be huge, but chances are good a team with more cap room will nab him.

PORTLAND TRAILBLAZERS

Portland is a young team on the rise. They made the playoffs, and in doing so, exposed their greatest weakness.  Depending on which players they decide to retain the rights to, they could go as far as $15-30 million under the cap. They will not advance past the 1st round with Steve Blake as the starting PG. The Blazers have a solid leader in two time All-Star Brandon Roy, but they need a savvy veteran who can bring the ball up court.

Andre Miller is a massive ugrade to Steve Blake (Credit: ESPN)

BIGGEST NEED: Andre Miller or Jason Kidd. Miller would instantly bring leadership and make Portland a title contender as the Blazers mature. Miller has a lot of game left in the tank, and with $8 million to spend in cap space, they could afford to sign him.

With Jason Kidd coordinating the offense, there is no telling where the Blazers could go. Odds are Kidd remains in Dallas or signs with the New York Knicks. Kidd is already in New York and ready to begin negotiations.

MIAMI HEAT

Miami obviously has no interest in spending any money this summer. Their top priority is re-signing Dwyane Wade. The irony might end up being that in not making moves to secure talent around Wade they may lose him. Wade has made it abundantly clear in the media that he wants players provided for him now, not later. What Miami really needs is a low post presence. A solid center would immediately seal up a lot of loose ends for the Heat.

Marcin Gortat can start and make a difference in MIami (Credit: pablonasportowo)

BIGGEST NEED: Marcin Gortat or Anderson Varejao. With Orlando recently acquiring Vince Carter, Orlando will have trouble matching offers for Gortat. With Cleveland making the O’Neal trade they have no chance of paying Varajao the money he wants. Gortat has proven to be a solid performer when filling in for foul-prone Dwight Howard, and could be an affordable solution to fill the void in the middle in Miami. Varejao’s athleticism and defensive prowess might be the better move for Miami. He can give them what last year Jermaine O’Neal couldn’t.

Forget the Shaquille O’Neal trade to Cleveland.  Lets focus on the franchise that made the largest strides this off season.

The San Antonio Spurs are now a major threat to win the NBA title in 2010.

RIchard Jefferson will be on his best team ever. (Credit: nbainchina.com)

San Antonio dumped old horses Bruce Bowen, Kurt Thomas, and the intermittent Fabricio Oberto, receiving Richard Jefferson in return. This liquidation of old players for a player with 6 seasons of playoff experience and loads of productivity remaining is the best off season move in the NBA thus far.

Odds are probable the Spurs plan to resign Oberto if he is waived by Detriot.

We ask Gregg Popovich only one thing: Are you complaining now about the league voting on trades? If you have been living on an island or a 3rd world country lacking internet connectivity you would not know how Popovich publicly ripped the Pau Gasol trade .

Here is his is what Pop had to say upon discovering Pau Gasol was being sent to the Los Angeles Lakers for Marc Gasol, Kwame Brown, Javaris Crittenton, and a pair of first-round picks:

What can stop Gregg Popovich's Spurs now? (Credit: daylife.com)

“What they did in Memphis is beyond comprehension,” said Popovich. “There should be a trade committee that can scratch all trades that make no sense. I just wish I had been on a trade committee that oversees NBA trades. I’d like to elect myself to that committee. I would have voted no to the L.A. trade.”

Really Pop? Do you still possess these convictions now that you just pulled off an even more lopsided trade? Should the league be able to vote on trades? Would you like that committee to still be assembled?

How many coaches in the Western Conference would vote “yes” to this transaction?

San Antonio now has 4 bonafide scoring threats, all of whom are highly capable of erupting for 30 or more points at any given moment.

Can Manu Ginobili and the Spurs fight past LA? (Credit: interbasket.net)

Manu Ginobili, and Tony Parker, should be able to rip opponents apart now. Once a double team collapses, the options to dish to Richard Jefferson, Roger Mason, and Matt Bonner for open 3s will wreak havoc to all defensive schematics. When all else fails, San  Antonio can spread the floor, and dump the ball into an isolated Tim Duncan for one on one post play.

If his ankle is fully recovered, Manu Ginobili should have no problems picking up 6th  Man of the Year.

Tim Duncan will keep opponents D honest. (Credit: onemanfastbreak.com)

Tim Duncan is a highly apt passer from the post, and he now has one more option forcing teams to play him straight up. Duncan’s scoring and assists total should see a spike this year. Duncan will make sure everyone is a beneficiary of defenses trying to figure out how to guard them.

The harsh reality is that the Spurs managed 54 wins in 2008-09. They did so with Parker out 1 month, Ginobili in and out all season recovering from his ankle surgery, and Tim Duncan’s problematic sore knees. Adding Richard Jefferson to the mix makes it hard to imagine even the Lakers getting past them in 7 games.

San Antonio will have a higher playoff seed than 2008-09 (3rd), if not the #1 seed. With home court advantage for the majority, if not all of their match ups, the post season will become easier.

Look to see them in the NBA Finals in 2010. Oh yeah, and winning the NBA Championship.