PROTECT THE PAINT

I wrote prior the start of this season that I believe Stephen Curry of the Golden State Warriors will win the NBA Rookie of the Year award this season.

Brandon Jennings of the Milwaukee Bucks gave my prediction the first threat of the year as I watched him drop in 55 points against the Warriors as I was reviewing Curry. At that point, I knew this was not going to be easy for my prediction to come to fruition.

Without question, Tyreke Evans has been the leader in the race for the first 42 games of the season. He is averaging numbers that few do in their first year.

Evans has declined in January, and still continues to hoist threes when it is clear he is not suited to. The return of Kevin Martin is going to grate even further against his numbers, so his productivity will have to take a hit. If not, expect major term oil between the rookie and the veteran.

Curry is a triple double threat lately. (Credit: picapp.com)

If Curry continues capitalizing on Monta Ellis’ absence (due to an ankle injury), he can put himself in contention to eventually take the prize.

With the Warriors scrambling around the NBA Development League in order to dress enough player to qualify to play, there is going to be no shortage of minutes or shots for Curry now.

Evidence of this was on display tonight in Sacramento, where Curry put up 27 points with 9 rebounds, 6 assists, and 3 steals against Tyreke’s Sacramento Kings tonight. Curry had only 1 turnover playing the point guard for 44:42. That is impressive stuff from the kid nobody believed could transition to the point after a career at shooting guard at Davidson College.

Evans, on the other hand, had 23 points on 8-21 shooting, going 0-2 from 3 point range. Compared to Curry, Evans underperformed Curry in every statical category except turnovers. Evans finished with 3 to Curry’s 1.

Stephen Curry seems to have caught up to speed with the pace of the NBA game during January and is averaging 19 points, 4.5 assists, 4.3 rebounds, and 1.8 steals a contest. He is averaging 15 shots per game.

Tyrekes Evans is dropping in 21.6 points, 4.9 assists, and 3.6 rebounds in January.  He is averaging 16.6 shots a game. These are good numbers, but they are on the decline. Again, I reiterate Kevin Martin will be dipping into these numbers as the season progresses.

Curry is clearly the superior shooter to Evans.  Evans has had the green light all year, and manages to continue to shoot the 3 even though he has a 25% success rate for the season.

This could derail Evans later in the season if he cannot learn to control his 3 point shot urges. If he cannot hit the 3 consistently, game plans designed back off of him outside will hurt his chances of driving inside. Hence, less shots, less scoring.

Curry has a lower scoring average than Evans because (1) rookies get treated terribly by Don Nelson and (2) Monta Ellis has trouble giving the ball up once it is in his hands.

No, seriously, watch Ellis when he gets the ball. Of the 5 assists he averages, a lot of them are on bailout passes as he realizes he has taken a team 1 on 5.

Now that Ellis is out, Curry is playing serious ball. If he continues this pace without Ellis, or if one of the many trade rumors surrounding the Warriors lands him or Ellis elsewhere before February 18th, look for Curry to rise right to the top, and breath down Evans’ neck for the Rookie of the Year award.

Evans has been a beast all year, but will he sustain his numbers as the season progresses and teams begin picking him apart with their defensive strategies? Will Kevin Martin start demanding the ball more?

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